Qualifying at Qatar gave us our first look at exactly where the MotoGP field truly stands. No a lot more attempting to read between the lines in testing or practice, this was straight head-to-head combat, with the prospect of a robust starting position.
The conclusions we can draw? The established order has not been toppled, as Jorge Lorenzo and Marc Márquez are 1-two on the grid. The Ducatis are genuinely robust, each factory Andreas in the leading six (and Iannone unlucky not to get pole).
Maverick Viñales is nevertheless on course to grow to be the fifth alien, securing his second ever front row start off. Valentino Rossi has worked on his remaining weakness, and seems to have improved it.
Fifth on the grid is little far better than his median beginning position from 2015, even though a sample size of one is never ever a excellent beginning point for statistical evaluation. The Michelins do take longer to get the best out of them, but not as extended as numerous feared.
The one particular point nobody knows about the race is precisely how the Michelins and the electronics are going to have an effect on it. Tires will be the largest issue – in impact, the electronics also relate to the tires, as how properly they are managed will dictate how the tires put on – and 1 impact of the switch to Michelin appears to be that there is a viable selection on the rear once more.
Even though Bridgestone usually brought two compounds of tire to the races, the teams knew they would be racing the softer option, only placing in a tough tire to save the softer tires.
In the qualifying press conference, all 3 MotoGP riders mentioned they nonetheless had to make a decision which tire to use. Jorge Lorenzo mentioned he believed they could race both tires, and Marc Márquez and Maverick Viñales have been also uncertain of their selections.
Greater Rubber
If each rear Michelins really are viable options, this is a huge step forward for MotoGP. It will genuinely mean that some riders will gamble on going harder early on the softs, in the hopes of hanging on, even though other individuals will plump for the hards, and hope to keep more overall performance at the finish.
But each tires are comparatively constant, Lorenzo saying that he created his quickest lap on the last lap of his race simulation throughout the test.
All three front row sitters agreed that the quickest lap would likely come about the middle of the race, lap ten or eleven, when a lot of fuel has been burnt off, but there is nevertheless enough rubber to go quickly.
Even the front tire is a question mark, and depends on which bike you are on. The Hondas need to have the hardest front tire, even though it lacks a bit of feedback. The RC213V still punishes the front tire, the chassis idea still focused on operating “V” lines in corners: brake tough, quit the bike, turn it as swiftly as feasible, then accelerate out challenging.
The Honda riders are all using a 2015 chassis, the a single most of them raced with in the second half of final year, with a few minor upgrades. These upgrades are important, nonetheless:
Cal Crutchlow would not be drawn on the precise particulars, but he insisted that the factory riders had parts which the satellite Hondas did not, and this was created a distinction in acceleration.
The Yamahas, on the other hand, can run some thing softer, as they run lines which are a lot more of a “U” shape, braking earlier and then carrying much more corner speed. Even then there are differences among riders, Valentino Rossi apparently favoring the hard front for the duration of qualifying, while Jorge Lorenzo went with the medium.
MotoGP vs. Moto2?
The big query, though, is how the Michelins will react soon after thirty Moto2 bikes have smeared Dunlop rubber more than the track. The operating order of practice has observed the MotoGP machines practice after Moto2, which has helped give the teams some notion.
But racing and practice are extremely distinct, races leaving a lot far more rubber on the track, and in distinct points as riders try to pass a single one more. That could prove to be very treacherous for the MotoGP field. The difficulty is, they will only find out on Sunday.
A single query that did get answered is whether it was possible to push hard from the begin with the Michelins. Jorge Lorenzo set his fastest lap on his very first flying lap out of the pits, his second run falling flat soon after a large moment with the tires nearly letting got.
It wasn’t effortless, though: in contrast to last year, where the vast majority of riders set their very best time on either a single flying lap, or the first lap of two, in 2016, most riders required at least 1 flying lap to get up to speed.
For Andrea Dovizioso, it took even longer, the Italian performing a run of five flying laps, his best lap coming on the fourth. It signifies that techniques in qualifying will alter: no more three-run qualifying approaches at tracks like Jerez and Sachsenring.
Rather, it will be two runs, with more time spent on the tires.
Aided by Serendipity
Jorge Lorenzo may have secured pole – his 62nd, taking over the record for the most pole positions from Valentino Rossi, but more on that later – but it is not unreasonable to attribute that in modest component to luck.
1st, there is Andrea Iannone, who ran into Scott Redding even though he was on a hot lap, Iannone losing two tenths because of the Pramac Ducati rider. Redding was not to blame, Iannone was merely unlucky to run across him in the final complex of bends before the front straight, losing two tenths in the final sector.
Two tenths of a second would have moved Iannone up from fourth, and place him five hundredths ahead of Lorenzo.
Lorenzo was also lucky that Marc Márquez misjudged his final run by a single second. The Repsol Honda rider crossed the line just a second after the flag went out, and so his final flying lap was not counted.
Márquez looked down at his lap timer, and was elated to see he was on pole, getting just ridden a lap of 1’54.two. He then looked up at the large screen, and saw he was nonetheless in second, and that he had missed out on pole simply because he had not noticed the checkered flag being waved the lap prior to.
There is nonetheless much function to do in MotoGP, and as if to demonstrate that, Marc Márquez almost lost it totally in the course of his practice commence. A malfunction – Márquez clearly knew what it was, but would not be drawn on the details in the course of the press conference – saw the front lock up as it landed after the wheelie at the start off, sending his bike veering off to the left, and off track.
If that had happened during a real commence, it would have been lethal. The problem looked like some type of brake dilemma, something which can easily be fixed.
Nonetheless, it has been clear all weekend that starts will appear a tiny diverse in the spec-electronics era. The front wants to come up a little much more, and the bikes are a little a lot more hard to get off the line. This, it appears to me, is a good point.
Anticipate a Wild Ride
What can we anticipate from the race? With Jorge Lorenzo on pole, the fear is that he will get the holeshot, then disappear from the initial lap. But is that possible with the Michelins, which are clearly diverse to the Bridgestones from last year?
We have extremely little information to go on, but there is 1 exit of Lorenzo’s we can use. On his final run of FP4, Lorenzo accelerated hard out of the pits, pushing to get up to speed as swiftly as possible.
In sector two of his out lap, he was at 102.27% of his fast time for that sector. In sector three, he was at 100.33%, and one hundred.54% in sector 4. In terms of time, he was roughly a tenth of a second off his greatest time for the final two sectors on his out lap.
That is pretty close to what Lorenzo was performing in 2015 on the Bridgestones. The risk for Lorenzo is that if he tries to push as well difficult on a surface which feels various right after the Moto2 race, he could throw it all away, just as he did in 2014.
In truth, it is as well tough to make any actual predictions for the MotoGP race on Sunday. There are just too a lot of variables to contemplate. Lorenzo appears swift on paper, but dangers trying to push as well early.
Marc Márquez stated he had reverted to his old riding style, pushing difficult to make the bike go more rapidly. This worked to an extent, but it also required taking a lot of danger. When he tried that final year, he tended to end up in the gravel more frequently than on the podium.
Then there’s the Ducatis, and how they will fare. Andrea Iannone appears to be regularly fast, and on paper, on course for a podium at the quite least. Maverick Viñales remains deeply impressive on the Suzuki, and on the verge of producing a breakthrough.
A podium would cement his alien status, whilst getting in the fight for a podium but falling quick would raise a few question marks. Valentino Rossi begins from fifth, and can by no means be ruled out on a Sunday.
There are also a lot of question marks: how will the tires react? How will the electronics behave? How will the electronics affect tire wear? How will the riders hand both tire wear and the spec electronics? With so numerous unknowns, creating predictions is a fool’s errand. Something could occur.
Sanity in the Junior Classes
Predictions are a lot easier in Moto2 and Moto3. In the Moto2 class, Sam Lowes has been impressive all weekend, and will be in the running for victory in Qatar. But he could not have it all his personal way: Alex Rins, Jonas Folger, even Tom Luthi have been fast and could pose a substantial challenge.
Johann Zarco has enhanced all through the weekend, and starting from fourth is certain to be a factor. Franco Morbidelli is now in the greatest team in the paddock, and must be a issue for the race.
Moto2 ultimately appears like becoming exciting once more, instead of the procession it has turned into in recent years. There is a group of five or six riders who can fight more than the podiums at every single race, and two or 3 who look like becoming capable to win at each and every outing.
Moto3 is a lot much more open, but there is also a clear favored. Livio Loi has been deeply impressive all weekend, dominating practice and setting quick times all on his personal.
The RW Racing GP rider has not required a tow to either be fastest or in the prime 3, despite the truth that a tow is worth around a half a second or more down Qatar’s expansive front straight.
Romano Fenati might have snatched pole with a brilliantly strategic use of a group ahead of him, but he required a tow to get ahead of Loi, after Loi set a time on his personal.
There are still a handful of riders who could make the Moto3 race interesting, in spite of the threat of Livio Loi doing a Danny Kent. Jorge Navarro is the clear favored for the title, and has been there or thereabouts each session.
Brad Binder has knuckled down to perform below Aki Ajo’s iron discipline, and is reaping the positive aspects. Fabio Quartararo, Nicolo Bulega, Enea Bastianini, and several more appear up for a fight. Moto3 is promising to be another banner year.
Itching for a Fight
If the outcomes of the MotoGP race are unpredictable, the problems at the leading is totally anticipated. It was obvious that Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo were never going to be very good close friends after the way the 2015 season unfolded.
They had been in no way truly best friends ahead of that. But the predicament exploded on Saturday at Qatar. On Saturday evening, as both guys spoke to the press, they hurled accusations and cheap shots at a single yet another. A state of open warfare appears to exist in the Movistar Yamaha garage.
It all began with the announcement that Valentino Rossi had signed a new deal with Yamaha, that will see him racing with the factory until at least the end of 2018.
That fired off a round of speculation, most of which was unfounded. Had Lorenzo been snubbed? Soon after all, he had stated publicly that he wanted his contract wrapped up before the start of the season, even though Rossi had mentioned he would wait for the very first 5 or six races just before generating a selection.
It turned out that Lorenzo had not been snubbed. In a press conference in which Lin Jarvis got to show his mastery of public relations, the Yamaha boss explained precisely how the Rossi deal had come about, and what the present circumstance was with Lorenzo.
They had both been offered a contract, Jarvis said, the e-mail going out simultaneously to the two riders. Rossi had agreed quickly, and signed the deal at Qatar. Lorenzo had taken a waiting strategy, and was not but willing to sign.
Stating the Apparent
Was the announcement badly timed, journalists asked? Why had it been announced just before the race, would it not have been greater to wait till following the race on Monday?
Jarvis gave a sigh, then pointed out that the world’s media were assembled at the circuit, and that if the aim of such announcements was to garner media coverage for the team and their sponsors, then it made sense to so nicely prior to the race, so that Television organizations could do interviews and journalists could ask queries, rather than sending out a press release on Monday when everybody would be traveling house, and consequently not likely able to write up the deal.
What about Lorenzo? He had been supplied “the greatest provide of his profession,” Lorenzo’s staff had mentioned, and Lin Jarvis had confirmed. Lorenzo was a person who liked to give decisions thorough consideration, Jarvis said, and so he was nonetheless waiting before deciding where he will be racing from 2017.
The Lorenzo camp had not appreciated the timing of the announcement, journalists asserted. But producing the announcement later would have been undesirable politics, Jarvis countered.
It is much more most likely that Lorenzo and his staff took the contract announcement the incorrect way. That is completely understandable, given the history among the two. When you are searching for a explanation to be offended, it becomes extremely effortless to locate 1.
Argy Bargy
Valentino Rossi is no innocent in all this. Jorge Lorenzo entered the track in front of Rossi in the course of FP4, something which triggered Rossi to lose his temper, gesticulating much as Casey Stoner had done to Randy De Puniet back at Le Mans in 2011.
At the end of FP4, when the two lined up to do a practice commence, Rossi continued the gesticulation, Lorenzo dismissing it with a wave.
The bitter battle transformed into a war of words following qualifying, with Lorenzo claiming that he had not held Rossi up deliberately, and that he had had nowhere else to go. “In my opinion, he has nothing to complain about.”
The war of words intensified when the topic of contracts came up. Speaking to the Spanish press, Jorge Lorenzo mentioned that Rossi had signed so speedily with Yamaha simply because he essentially had no selection. His history with other manufactures – especially, Honda and Ducati – meant that Rossi had no selection to go anyplace else. Lorenzo also implied that Rossi’s age had also been a aspect.
Valentino Rossi returned the favor when speaking to the media, and piled on a tiny further. He had been expecting an apology from his teammate, Rossi mentioned, but rather, Lorenzo had looked at him as if to say, what do you want?
Rossi felt that Lorenzo had deserved a penalty point for the way he had entered the track, for the exact same cause that Rossi himself had been given a point at Misano last year.
When asked about Lorenzo’s contract predicament, Rossi brought up Ducati. He told the media that he expected Lorenzo to stay, in spite of an provide from Ducati. The cause? “It would take a lot of courage to make the switch to Ducati. That sort of choice requires a lot of balls, so I feel he [Lorenzo] will keep.”
Do Thoughts Games Still Perform?
Why the venom? It appears as if Valentino Rossi, specially, is determined to get in to Jorge Lorenzo’s head. Rossi has had some good results in the previous in weakening rivals by putting them beneath stress.
Feeling robbed of the 2015 title, Rossi is attempting to ramp up the stress on Lorenzo again, as a way of obtaining him to crack.
Rossi’s dilemma is that this is 2016, not 2004. The attacks he has produced on Lorenzo and Márquez have been fierce, but their efficacy is far from guaranteed.
In the past, Rossi’s mind games worked due to the fact his rivals knew that they have been weaker than him, and so required almost everything to go their way to defeat him.
Jorge Lorenzo and Marc Márquez know they can beat Rossi in a straight fight, and so do not fear the Italian. His techniques are much less likely to perform with no that leverage.
Will the war of words continue? You can bet your life savings on it. This is not a circumstance which Dorna is happy with, and Carmelo Ezpeleta is rumored to be intervening personally to put a cease to it.
It seems likely that the Dorna CEO will fail in this endeavor. That may be undesirable for him, but it should add a good level of spice to MotoGP. As if the sport even needed it. This saga is set to run and run.
Pictures: © 2016 Cormac Ryan-Meenan / CormacGP – All Rights Reserved
This article was originally published on MotoMatters, and is republished right here on Asphalt & Rubber with permission by the author.
Saturday MotoGP Summary at Qatar: On Unpredictable Racing, and the Futility of Thoughts Games
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